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Open Access Research

External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception

Amani Khader1, Suzanne M Lloyd2, Alex McConnachie2, Richard Fleming3, Valentina Grisendi4, Antonio La Marca4 and Scott M Nelson1*

Author Affiliations

1 School of Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK

2 Robertson Centre for Biostatistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK

3 Glasgow Centre for Reproductive Medicine, Glasgow, G51 4FD, UK

4 Mother-Infant Department, Institute of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, 41100, Italy

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Journal of Ovarian Research 2013, 6:3  doi:10.1186/1757-2215-6-3

Published: 7 January 2013

Abstract

Background

Chronological age and oocyte yield are independent determinants of live birth in assisted conception. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is strongly associated with oocyte yield after controlled ovarian stimulation. We have previously assessed the ability of AMH and age to independently predict live birth in an Italian assisted conception cohort. Herein we report the external validation of the nomogram in 822 UK first in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles.

Methods

Retrospective cohort consisting of 822 patients undergoing their first IVF treatment cycle at Glasgow Centre for Reproductive Medicine. Analyses were restricted to women aged between 25 and 42 years of age. All women had an AMH measured prior to commencing their first IVF cycle. The performance of the model was assessed; discrimination by the area under the receiver operator curve (ROCAUC) and model calibration by the predicted probability versus observed probability.

Results

Live births occurred in 29.4% of the cohort. The observed and predicted outcomes showed no evidence of miscalibration (p = 0.188). The ROCAUC was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.68), suggesting moderate and similar discrimination to the original model. The ROCAUC for a continuous model of age and AMH was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61, 0.69), suggesting that the original categories of AMH were appropriate.

Conclusions

We confirm by external validation that AMH and age are independent predictors of live birth. Although the confidence intervals for each category are wide, our results support the assessment of AMH in larger cohorts with detailed baseline phenotyping for live birth prediction.

Keywords:
AMH; Live birth prediction; IVF